2025 RF Developers Uganda Real-Estate Index

Mapping Kampala’s New Centres of Growth

1. About the Index

The RF Developers Uganda Real-Estate Index is a data-driven snapshot of Uganda’s urban property market, with a special focus on Kampala and its growth corridors.

Inspired by leading regional benchmarks, the Index:

Tracks movements in:
- Residential sale prices
- Rental trends and yields
- Land values and development hotspots
Helps:
- Diaspora and local investors benchmark returns
- Developers identify high-growth segments
- Lenders and valuers gauge market risk and opportunity

The 2025 edition focuses on where real demand is flowing, what is overheating, and how RF Developers is positioned within this transforming landscape.

2. Executive Snapshot: 2025 at a Glance

The Ugandan property market in 2025 is expanding but highly segmented. Key signals:

Solid price growth
- Uganda Housing Index at 115.76 points in Q3 2025, up from 112.46 in Q2 2025
- Approx. 2.9 % quarterly and 4.7 % year-on-year growth
- Kampala residential prices forecast to rise 8–12 % in 2025, with long-term appreciation of 5–15 % p.a.
Demand is shifting
- Gradual migration away from traditional prime zones (Kololo, Nakasero)
- Strong pull toward Lubowa, Bugolobi, Mbuya Hills, Naguru, Ntinda, Kira, Najjera, Munyonyo, Kyanjaand selected satellite towns
Luxury market outperforms
- Capital appreciation of 15–20 % annually in top luxury corridors
- Prime rental yields of 8–10 %, especially in Lubowa, Bugolobi, Mbuya, Naguru and Ntinda
- Biophilic design and smart-home features capturing 10–20 % price premiums
Mainstream rentals remain attractive
- Core residential areas delivering 3.7–6.4 % gross rental yields
- Rental demand supported by robust urbanisation and a young population
Growth segments to watch
- Affordable housing, backed by a ≈2.4 million-unit housing deficit
- Modern warehousing around Namanve and logistics corridors
- Serviced apartments, with demand up 12 % in 2024
Key risks
- Oversupply in high-end offices (100,000+ m² new space expected in 2025)
- Pipeline of high-end residential units in prime areas
- Regulatory and infrastructure bottlenecks in selected locations

3. Composite Sales Price Index – Uganda Housing

The composite index captures overall residential price movement:

Composite Housing Index (Q3 2025)
- 115.76 points, with 2014/15–2015/16 = 100
- Highest level on record for the Uganda Housing Index
Quarter-on-Quarter Performance
- From 112.46 (Q2 2025) to 115.76 (Q3 2025)
- Approx. 2.9 % quarterly growth
Year-on-Year Performance
- House Price Index growth of ≈4.7 % between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025
Price Growth Outlook (Kampala, 2025)
- Forecast 8–12 % annual growth in residential prices
- Long-term appreciation trend estimated at 5–15 % per year
Suburbs by growth category
- High-growth luxury suburbs
  - Lubowa
  - Bugolobi
  - Mbuya Hills
  - Naguru
  - Ntinda
  - Historical price gains of 15–20 % p.a.
- Moderate-growth & infrastructure-linked suburbs
  - Kira, Najjera, Namugongo, Mukono, Mpigi, Gayaza, Kyanja
  - Outskirts of Entebbe and corridors near Namanve Industrial Park
  - 20–30 % price premiums close to expressways and major roads

4. Rental Index and Yields

Rental performance varies strongly by location and product:

Prime luxury rentals
- Key locations: Kololo, Ntinda, Lubowa, Bugolobi, Naguru
- Indicative yields: 8–10 %
- Occupancy: around 85 %, supported by expatriates, diplomats and corporate tenants
- Serviced apartments in these pockets recorded a 12 % increase in demand in 2024
Mainstream residential zones
- Key suburbs: Kira, Najjera, Namugongo, Mukono, Wakiso, Kyanja
- Indicative yields: 3.7–6.4 %
- Demand driven by:
  - Middle-income professionals
  - Access to new roads and services
  - Relative affordability compared to legacy prime areas
Detached houses in secondary suburbs
- Indicative yields: 4–6 %
- Strong appeal for family living in well-connected estates
Industrial and logistics properties
- Locations: Namanve (Kampala Industrial and Business Park) and surrounding nodes
- Occupancy: typically >80 %
- Indicative rents: US$3–7/m² per month for modern warehousing
Office sector
- More than 100,000 m² of new supply projected in 2025
- Rising vacancies and pressure on asking rents, especially in high-end CBD and prime office towers

5. Land and Development Dynamics

Land values and development appetite are being reshaped by infrastructure, demographics and industry trends:

Infrastructure-led premiums
- Properties along Entebbe Expressway, Masaka Road and Hoima Road
- Achieving 20–30 % price premiums thanks to improved access
Housing deficit as a structural driver
- Approximate national shortage of 2.4 million housing units
- Estimated annual demand of 210,000+ new homes
- Long-term support for land values in well-planned residential zones
Industrial and logistics land
- Namanve Industrial Park and the upcoming Bukasa Inland Port fuelling:
  - Strong demand for logistics and light industrial land
  - Rapid appreciation near Mukono, Seeta and key transport junctions
Luxury development corridors
- Lubowa
  - Large, lush plots and gated communities
  - Capital appreciation of 15–20 % p.a. sustained by lifestyle appeal
- Bugolobi & Mbuya Hills
  - Boutique luxury apartments priced around US$350,000–600,000
  - Popular among diplomats and high-net-worth families

6. Segment Performance – Sales (By Location Type)

Instead of detailed tables, the 2025 Index groups performance into clear segment stories:

Prime legacy suburbs – Kololo & Nakasero
- Market posture
  - Sales volumes are relatively low
  - Occupancy levels around 82 %
- Performance
  - Moderate appreciation of 3–5 %
- Key issue
  - Oversupply from a pipeline exceeding 1,100 high-end units
  - Pricing remains high relative to emerging competitors
Emerging luxury suburbs – Lubowa & Bugolobi
- Capital appreciation
  - Approximately 15–20 % per year in recent years
- Location advantages
  - Improved access via Entebbe Expressway
  - Larger plots, greenery and secure gated communities
- Buyer profiles
  - Upper-middle-class professionals
  - Diaspora buyers seeking lifestyle and long-term capital gains
Luxury suburban hills – Mbuya Hills & Naguru
- Capital uplift
  - Approximately 25 % price growth since 2022
- Product profile
  - High-end apartments and townhouses, often US$350,000–600,000
- Demand base
  - Diplomats
  - Corporate executives
  - High-net-worth families
Secondary suburbs – Kira, Najjera, Namugongo, Munyonyo, Kyanja
- Price growth
  - 8–12 % annual appreciation on average
- Rental yields
  - Typically 4–6 %
- Drivers
  - Relative affordability
  - Upgraded infrastructure (roads, utilities, services)
  - Significant diaspora investment
Satellite towns – Mukono, Mpigi, Gayaza, Seeta, outskirts of Entebbe
- Performance
  - Rapid appreciation, especially near expressways
  - 20–30 % price premiums where infrastructure is strongest
- Strategic role
  - Natural spill-over markets from Kampala
  - Ideal for master-planned communities and long-term land banking
Industrial/logistics hubs – Namanve & surrounds
- Occupancy
  - Frequently >80 % in modern facilities
- Investment case
  - Growing demand from manufacturing, logistics and e-commerce
  - Limited supply of modern, compliant warehousing

7. Segment Performance – Rentals (By Product)

The rental market shows differentiated performance by product type rather than just location:

Serviced apartments in prime zones (Kololo, Ntinda, Lubowa)
- Yields: 8–10 %
- Occupancy: ≈85 %
- Tenant base:
  - Expatriates
  - Diplomats
  - Regional executives on medium-term assignments
High-end apartments & townhouses (Naguru, Mbuya, Bugolobi)
- Yields: 7–9 %
- Value drivers:
  - Smart-home integrations
  - Strong amenity mix (gyms, pools, concierge services)
  - Secure, well-managed estates
Mid-market apartments (Kira, Najjera, Namugongo, Mukono)
- Yields: 3.7–6.4 %
- Demand drivers:
  - Middle-income professionals
  - Proximity to schools, workplaces and transport corridors
  - Growing demand for modern but affordable lifestyle apartments
Detached homes in secondary and peri-urban suburbs
- Yields: typically 4–6 %
- Target market:
  - Families seeking privacy and larger spaces
  - Tenants willing to commute for better living environments

8. Narrative Market Analysis and Outlook

8.1 Macro-Economic Context

Growth momentum
- GDP projected to grow ≈6.5 % in FY 2024/25
- Key drivers: oil and gas, infrastructure, and a recovering services sector
Demographics
- Population growth exceeding 5 % per year
- Young, urbanising population underpinning long-term housing and commercial demand
Monetary policy
- Bank of Uganda policy rate reduced to 9.75 % in late 2024
- Potential reduction in mortgage costs and financing burdens over time

8.2 Demand Shifts and Market Segmentation

Prime segments under pressure
- Kololo and Nakasero face slower absorption and rising vacancy
- High asking prices and increasing competition from new luxury nodes
Rise of secondary suburbs & satellite towns
- Kira, Najjera, Namugongo, Munyonyo, Kyanja, Mukono and Gayaza gaining traction
- Buyers prioritise:
  - Modern amenities
  - Strong infrastructure
  - Better value per square metre
Diaspora investors as a decisive force
- Strong presence in Najjera, Lubowa, Munyonyo and other lifestyle enclaves
- Preference for:
  - Structured payment plans
  - Transparent developers
  - High-quality finishes and amenities

9. Key Opportunities for Investors and Developers

1) Affordable and attainable housing
- Backed by ≈2.4 million units housing deficit
- Over 210,000 homes needed annually
- Strong potential in:
  - Well-priced apartments and townhouses
  - Public–private partnerships
  - Mortgage and rent-to-own innovations
2) Modern warehousing and logistics
- Growing demand for compliant storage and logistics hubs
- Strong prospects around:
  - Namanve Industrial Park
  - Key corridors serving Bukasa Inland Port and logistics belts
3) Serviced apartments and flexible stays
- 12 % demand growth in 2024
- Ideal for:
  - Corporate relocations
  - Regional business travel
  - Long-stay expatriates
4) Eco-luxury and smart homes
- Biophilic design, smart-home systems and energy efficiency generating 10–20 % price premiums
- Key differentiators:
  - Indigenous landscaping
  - Solar integration
  - Intelligent security and home automation
5) Emerging luxury enclaves
- Lubowa, Bugolobi, Mbuya Hills, Naguru, Ntinda remain key luxury bets
- Offer a combination of:
  - Capital gains (15–20 % p.a.)
  - Rental yields of 8–10 %

10. Risks and Challenges

Investors and developers should remain alert to:

Oversupply in selected segments
- 100,000+ m² of new office space in 2025 likely to raise vacancies
- Over 1,100 high-end residential units in prime locations may soften prices and slow absorption
Regulatory and tax shifts
- Changing property taxes, planning rules and approval timelines can impact project feasibility and returns
Infrastructure dependencies
- Values are tightly linked to the reliability of:
  - Roads
  - Power
  - Water and sewerage
- Even well-constructed projects can underperform if infrastructure lags
Market fragmentation
- Preferences are increasingly segmented by:
  - Income band
  - Lifestyle aspirations
  - Financing capacity
- One-size-fits-all projects face higher risk of underperformance

11. RF Developers: Positioning in the Ugandan Market

RF Developers Uganda is a joint initiative of two seasoned Kenyan developers—Kings Developers and Fairdeal Properties—with a combined portfolio of 60+ premium projects across the region.

Core pillars:

Proven experience
- Decades of delivering successful high-end residential and commercial projects in East Africa
- Deep understanding of luxury buyers, diaspora investors and institutional partners
Attainable luxury model
- Focus on “luxury you can step into” rather than luxury out of reach
- Key attributes:
  - Prime or fast-rising locations (e.g., Skyrise Apartments in Kololo)
  - Generous unit sizes (≈125–241 m²)
  - Prices beginning around US$135,000, competitively positioned in the regional market
  - Flexible payment plans (e.g., up to 40 months) designed for professionals and diaspora buyers
Client-centred promise
- Emphasis on:
  - Quality finishes and thoughtful layouts
  - Transparent construction updates
  - Early-investor incentives and launch discounts
Strategic alignment with market trends
- Core focus on:
  - High-growth luxury and emerging suburbs
  - Diaspora-friendly payment structures
  - Eco-luxury, biophilic design and smart-home integrations
- Well positioned to benefit from:
  - Growth in serviced apartments
  - Demand for secure, lifestyle-oriented communities

12. Conclusion: How to Read 2025 – And Where RF Developers Fits

The 2025 RF Developers Uganda Real-Estate Index shows a market that is:

Growing overall, with steady national price appreciation
Uneven in performance, with secondary suburbs and infrastructure corridors outpacing traditional prime areas
Rich in opportunity, especially in affordable housing, modern warehousing, serviced apartments and eco-luxury enclaves
Exposed to risk, particularly in overbuilt office and ultra-prime residential segments

For investors, the message is clear:

Follow infrastructure.
Prioritise value-driven, modern communities.
Partner with developers who combine experience, transparency and flexible financing.

RF Developers, with its attainable-luxury philosophy, diaspora-friendly structures and focus on Uganda’s new hotspots, is strongly positioned to help investors and homeowners navigate this evolving landscape and capture the most resilient opportunities of 2025 and beyond.